The Kentucky Derby, often referred to as the “Run for the Roses,” is not only a cornerstone of American horse racing but also a pivotal event for bettors and enthusiasts.
The 150th running of this prestigious race brings its own set of challenges and strategies, particularly when it comes to the draw of post positions. Here’s a deep dive into the significance of these positions for the upcoming 2024 race.
What Are Post Positions and Why Do They Matter?
Post positions in horse racing are the starting spots assigned to horses in the gate. Their importance is underscored by the influence they can have on the outcome of the race. Certain positions can offer strategic advantages or pose unique challenges based on historical data and the dynamics of the race.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2024
| Post | 2024 Derby Starter | Record | Win % | ITM % | Last Winner | Last In-the-Money |
| 1 | Dornoch | 94-8-5-5 | 8.5% | 19.1% | Ferdinand (1986) | Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017) |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 94-7-5-13 | 7.4% | 26.6% | Affirmed (1978) | Revolutionary (3rd, 2013) |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 94-5-8-8 | 5.3% | 22.3% | Real Quiet (1998) | Two Phil’s (2nd, 2023) |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 94-5-6-4 | 5.3% | 16.0% | Super Saver (2010) | Danza (3rd, 2014) |
| 5 | Catalytic | 94-10-8-4 | 10.6% | 23.4% | Always Dreaming (2017) | Audible (3rd, 2018) |
| 6 | Just Steel | 94-2-8-3 | 2.1% | 13.8% | Sea Hero (1993) | Good Magic (2nd, 2018) |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 93-8-6-6 | 8.6% | 21.5% | Mandaloun (2021) | Mandaloun (1st, 2021) |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 93-9-5-5 | 9.7% | 20.4% | Mage (2023) | Mage (1st, 2023) |
| 9 | Encino | 90-4-6-8 | 4.4% | 20.0% | Riva Ridge (1972) | Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021) |
| 10 | T O Password | 87-9-6-10 | 10.3% | 28.7% | Giacomo (2005) | Zandon (3rd, 2022) |
| 11 | Forever Young | 83-2-6-4 | 2.4% | 14.5% | Winning Colors (1988) | Code of Honor (2nd, 2019) |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 79-3-3-4 | 3.8% | 12.7% | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 77-5-5-7 | 6.5% | 22.1% | Nyquist (2016) | Nyquist (1st, 2016) |
| 14 | Endlessly | 67-2-6-6 | 3.0% | 20.9% | Carry Back (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 62-6-2-1 | 9.7% | 14.5% | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 51-4-3-3 | 7.8% | 19.6% | Animal Kingdom (2011) | Commanding Curve (2nd, 2014) |
| 17 | Fierceness | 44-0-1-2 | 0.0% | 6.8% | None | Forty Niner (2nd, 1988) |
| 18 | Stronghold | 36-2-4-0 | 5.6% | 16.7% | Country House (2019) | Country House (1st, 2019) |
| 19 | Resilience | 31-1-1-0 | 3.3% | 6.7% | I’ll Have Another (2012) | I’ll Have Another (1st, 2012) |
| 20 | Society Man | 19-2-0-1 | 11.1% | 16.7% | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
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Key Insights from the 2024 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
For this year’s Derby, each position tells a story, informed by decades of statistics. Here’s what the data suggests about some of the noteworthy positions:
- Post 1 (Dornoch): Known as a challenging spot due to the risk of being boxed in by other horses, Post 1 has not seen a winner since 1986. Despite these odds, the position still holds an overall win rate of 8.5%.
- Post 5 (Catalytic): Historically one of the more successful posts with a win rate of 10.6%. It’s not just about winners; horses from this post frequently finish in the money, making it a coveted draw.
- Post 17 (Fierceness): This post is notorious for never having produced a winner in the history of the Derby. It represents a notable challenge for Fierceness, who will attempt to break this long-standing trend.
- Outside Posts (13 and beyond): Recent years have shown a shift with many winners breaking from these wider positions, suggesting that an unimpeded run might outweigh the extra ground covered.
Historical Context and Recent Trends
The starting gate, which has been used since 1930, has a rich history of statistics that avid race followers and bettors use to forecast potential winners. For instance, while some posts like 17 have a daunting history, others like 15 have been quite auspicious in recent years, with winners like Authentic in 2020.
Also Check: How to watch Kentucky Derby 2024?
2024’s Contenders and Their Challenges
This year, each horse and jockey pair must navigate the legacy of their post positions. Will Catalytic add another win for Post 5, or will Fierceness make history from Post 17? These storylines add layers of intrigue and strategy to the race.
Final Thoughts
Understanding post positions is crucial for anyone engaged in betting or following the Kentucky Derby. While history provides a guide, each race is unique, and the outcome can always surprise us. As we approach the first Saturday in May, the anticipation builds not just for the race itself but for how these stories will unfold.
This analysis not only enriches the understanding of the Derby’s complexities but also enhances the experience for fans and participants alike. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual viewer, the impact of post positions is a fascinating aspect of the race that adds depth to the spectacle of the Kentucky Derby.